Pay attention , ….things are changing in Phoenix Housing Market, June 2009
Posted By Abe Schwarz on July 7, 2009
This is a copy of an e-mail I just received courtesy of the Information Store. We get all our sold and foreclosure data from them, quite reliable!!! Thought you might appreciate some real local real estate facts……..Abe
“I will tell you how to become rich. Close the doors. Be fearful when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are fearful.”
Warren Buffett
A year ago I was batting clean up for the housingdoom.com team, today, I’m called a cheerleader for ARMLS, comments like these don’t even dignify a response, plus they demean my skirt and pompoms. Today, and everyday, our mission is to paint a clear picture of where we are, and where we think we’re heading; here’s Michael Orr of The Cromford Report.
The Cromford Report
June produced another strong sales number of 9,333 across all areas and types, just ahead of May 2009. We are still seeing very high numbers of pending listings and record levels of AWC listings (active with contingent contract). The limited availability of financing is a major factor in how fast these convert to closed sales. June was relatively normal compared with the huge changes of the previous four months. Demand has stabilized at a high level, while overall supply is lower than demand and is still falling. At price points over $500,000 we still have a large over-supply situation, however; the fall in overall supply was nothing nearly as fast as it was between February and May. Regarding foreclosures, after something of a lull in March through May, the banks have emerged from all the so-called “moratoriums”, the trustees got busy and foreclosure sales hit a level similar to February. The resulting additional supply of REOs was almost enough to meet the buying demand and the inventory of REOs on ARMLS started to level off somewhere above 5,000. I think it would be fair to those who are continually forecasting a “flood of foreclosures” to say that more than 5,000 trustee sales in one month is definitely a big number. However these same analysts seem to believe this number is so large that the market must crumble with the volume. In fact, however, the number of lender owned properties listed as active on ARMLS fell from 5,475 to 5,150 during the month. Moreover the average price per square foot for the REOs that sold during June rose from $63.77 to $65.64. So the supply was huge, but the demand was even greater. We will have to wait to see which is stronger in July. With both numbers between 5,000 and 6,000 per month we now have a more evenly matched contest and as a result it becomes a little more difficult to call the result ahead of time.
Pricing is still increasing
Overall pricing moved higher during June, as evidenced by the sales median, average pricing and average sales price per sq ft; however, certain sectors are still moving lower. Short sales pricing ended lower, as did normal sales. The rises in pricing of REOs, coupled with a rise in the number of normal transactions were the two main factors leading to the overall pricing increase. Single family detached pricing is stronger than for other dwelling types. In many cities single family detached pricing made a distinct move upwards during the spring quarter. These include:
Anthem
Apache Junction
Chandler
El Mirage
Fountain Hills
Glendale
Goodyear
Litchfield Park
Maricopa
Phoenix
Queen Creek
Sun Lakes
In other cities, pricing can best be described as “moving sideways”. In the following cities, there is no longer a prevailing downward trend, but we have not seen a sustained and determined move upwards so far:
Arizona City
Avondale
Casa Grande
Gilbert
Laveen
Mesa
Paradise Valley
Peoria
Sun City West
Surprise
Tempe
The cities where pricing appears to be still falling is now a fairly short list:
Buckeye
Cave Creek
Gold Canyon
Scottsdale
Sun City
Notices of foreclosure issued in June were similar in number to May, and 8,500 to 9,000 per month seems to have become the norm. It is also normal to see about 2,500 foreclosures canceled each month. The current market conditions, together with the usually seasonal fall in volume during the third quarter, suggests that July may be a consolidation period like June rather than a month of dramatic change like February through May.
A Look Back
Wow that guy has a lot to say; now it’s my turn. When reviewing June numbers, the last month of the second quarter, we might be well served to review March, the last month of the first quarter. In March we stated, “You’re going to see a lot of confusion among people reporting foreclosure numbers as new notices hit all time highs and the number of active notices continue to rise. If an analyst is only watching new notices and not viewing the entire process, they are going to make some very dire predictions.” While other analysts were predicting an avalanche, we predicted a controlled release with a steady flow. I’ll let you decide, avalanche or steady flow?
3rd Quarter 2008: 12,495
4th Quarter 2008: 12,308
1st Quarter 2009: 12,833
2nd Quarter 2009: 12,061
In the past 12 months we saw a monthly high of 5,237 Trustee’s Deeds recorded in February and a low of 3,103 in April. We’ve seen some ups and downs in the monthly numbers, a sign of outside intervention, but the quarterly numbers are very similar. Now let’s take a look at median home sale prices. While others were calling for a bottom in early to mid 2010, Michael Orr of The Cromford Report called the bottom on April 6th, 2009. I know it’s early, but again, you be the judge. Here are the single family median resale numbers, derived from recorded affidavits from the Maricopa County Recorder offices. Personally, I think it was a pretty impressive call considering it was published in mid-April. I think that’s probably the reason his dance card is getting booked.
Jan $135,000
Feb $126,000
Mar $120,000
Apr $119,900
May $122,000
June $125,000
Here we go again
I had one last item to check before I sent this copy to my “editors” and the above content appears on my web browser, “Where not to buy real estate. Prices are plummeting in these five cities, with the end nowhere in sight.”
3) Phoenix
Home prices in Phoenix have fallen 53% from their peak in June 2006, and the 2009 data suggest they’ve got farther to go. In March, prices in Phoenix fell 4.5%. The Southwest has been one of the hardest-hit regions in the mortgage crisis. The region still faces a glut of recently-built homes. “In Phoenix, you had some of the worst excesses,” in terms of overbuilding, Moody says. “The surplus of houses is so great that it could take two or three years” for prices to turn around. However, a steady influx of new residents into the region suggests the long-term prospects for the market are sound, he says.
I feel like bopping this person on the head with my pompoms. That’s the problem with linear analysis, they’re looking at very much the same sales numbers presented in the previous section of this report, and they are drawing impetuous conclusions. We actually reported a larger price decline in March, 4.7% compared to their 4.5%. Let me give you an example of how their trending analysis works. The average high temperature in Phoenix in January is 66 degrees; from February to June the monthly reported numbers are 70, 75, 84, 93, and finally rising to 103 degrees in June. Using the same trending model they used to define our home prices, and without taking any other factors into consideration, our temperature in December will be 165 degrees. These are the same people who told you in 2006 that Phoenix was the number one place to buy real estate. They’ve already proven to be idiots in 2006, now they’re trying to tell us homes priced 53% lower than the homes they recommended three years earlier are bad buys. Give me my pompoms.
Zillow on Loan Mods
http://www.dsnews.com/index.php/home/news_story/3185
“The Obama administration announced Wednesday that it is expanding its Home Affordable Refinance Program to allow a larger pool of underwater homeowners refinance their mortgages at lower interest rates. The eligibility criteria for the program has been upped to 125 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, meaning a homeowner who owes up to 25 percent more on their mortgage than their home is now worth can apply for a government refinance …”
To which Zillow immediately reported:
“… the program now covers homeowners who are current but up to 125% underwater on their mortgage. Previously, only those homeowners who were 105% underwater qualified…”
I swear, you can’t make this stuff up, so much for small details. In the spirit of the 4th of July weekend let’s imagine how it might have been as Zillow’s founding fathers came together to choose a company moniker. Okay, begin imaginary conversation. “If we were a tree, what kind of tree would we be? We want to be large and widespread with ascending branches, we want to be a cool spot to visit, but offer nothing of sustenance. I know, we’ll be a willow.” After agreeing the company name should be Willow, they immediately misspelled it and the rest as they say is zistory, end imagination.
http://www.zillow.com/blog/mortgage/2009/07/01/more-help-for-underwater-homeowners/
Recovery
I think we need to define recovery….is recovery the point at which things start to get better, or is recovery when the market is restored to its former or better condition, the dictionary gives both definitions. If you’re in the hospital and your temperature is 105 and it drops to 104, this could be defined as recovery, it’s still a long ways from 98.6 but it is still an encouraging sign. My definition of recovery in the housing market is when the worm turns, the reason being, this is the time of greatest opportunity, this is the time to be greedy, this is the time others are most fearful.
Is he Crazy, or Crazy like a Fox
I have a friend; for the sake of anonymity and this article we’ll call him Steve, even though his real name is Lewis. In the fall of 2004 at the time we were urging everyone to purchase a home, he purchased a home for $196,000. He lived in the house while he renovated the property, putting in $35,000 in upgrades. In the fall of 2006 Steve sold his property for $480,000. Not an uncommon story for anyone purchasing and selling in that time frame. In the interim he moved to another locale, relived the cycle, purchased, restored, and sold; and now has returned to Arizona. The market he is shopping, homes priced around $500,000, he’s purchasing with the cash he made on his last two transactions. Now we’re all well aware of the current state of the housing market for homes $500,000 and above, so I ask you, is he crazy, or crazy like a fox? I know what the housing doom people say, I say fox. He’s shopping at the lowest priced entry point in the segment with largest over supply.
Investors in the marketplace
We have seen an increase in third party purchasers on the court house steps. Numbers for this year saw a low in February where 3rd party buyers accounted for 213 or 4.10% of all properties sold at foreclosure to a yearly high in June when 651 or 12.60% were purchased by third party buyers. Now let’s take a quick look at financing numbers for May, the last complete month where we have complete financing numbers. In May 40% of all home sales were for $100,000 or less. We define home sales as single family residences plus condos. Of homes purchased for $100,000 or less, 39% of these carried an intended use code “B”, meaning the new buyer intends to rent. Of the homes sold in May under $100,000, 65% of the buyers paid cash. It’s obvious the investor numbers are much higher than stated on the affidavit of value. I can’t imagine many first time home buyers paying cash.
Aloha kâkou!
I read the same news articles as you, and just like you I get confused sometimes by what I read. Whenever I see numbers or opinions which disagree with what I’m seeing I review the way I look at stuff. Basically, I ask myself, am I missing something, are my calculations wrong, is there a logical explanation for our differences, is there anything to be learned from their methodologies, what are they trying to identify, and finally, are they wrong? I believe the science of proving one’s theories correct is best done by constantly trying to prove one’s theories wrong.
Over the past year I have written about my dogs, farming, football and adult beverages. I’ve spoke of family, friends and colleagues, I’ve quoted people real and imaginary, and I’ve talked about the real estate market in Maricopa County. We’ve had a few close misses and a lot of direct hits; we’ve poked fun at ourselves and others, we’ve even had a God bless you or two along the way. Requests for our email came from around the country and beyond, and no one asked to be removed. Our mailing list included people from the Camelback corridor to Wall Street, the Federal Government to local municipalities, from the CEO to the unemployed, from academia to drinking buddies, and newspapers and magazines around the Country. If anyone saw our mailing list they would be surprised, at both its width and depth. I started with a few lines and a couple of reports for a few friends, and it was really they who made it grow, I just did what I do best, share with you the knowledge they shared with me. Now it’s time to move in a new direction, so I’m saying goodbye from Inphoman, and hello from The Cromford Report. My company is still The Information Market, the only thing changing is my commentary, it will only be available on a subscription basis through The Cromford Report.
Advertisement
The commentary above is just a small part of what you’ll find on The Cromford Report; for an extensive view of the area’s housing market please go to http://cromfordreport.com/. The service is free for ARMLS subscribers through the end of the year; if you’re not an ARMLS subscriber, there are now quarterly subscription rates at $90.00 per quarter. Mike is also available for public speaking engagements, fees begin at $600.00. Finally, if you’ve enjoyed my emails or found them informative or valuable, they will now be located solely on The Cromford Report as will the free reports currently being displayed at theinformationmarket.com.
Final Note
The Cromford Report has now surpassed the city in England for which it was named. When you type Cromford into your search engine, the Cromford Report is number one. Thank you for your time, I hope you found our reports valuable, and I hope we made you laugh a time or two.
Tom Ruff
The Information Market
About the author
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